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Investment Banks Lose Interest in the Czech Stock Market
A study by AKRO
investiční společnost, a.s., a Prague based investment firm, shows that since the
end of the financial crisis there has been a steep decline in the number of
investment banks publishing up-to-date forecasts for companies on the Prague
Stock Exchange.
Using Bloomberg Data,
the analysis studied the level of research ‘coverage’ for companies included in
the Prague Stock Exchange (PX) Index. The term research ‘coverage’ refers to
the number analysts’ published financial forecasts for a given listed company. These
forecasts are provided mainly by investment banks but occasionally also by
independent research firms. For consistency, only forecasts included in the
Bloomberg ‘consensus’ were included, thereby ensuring out-of-date forecasts
were excluded.
For companies in
the PX index, coverage peaked in 2009, with a total of 148 separate EPS
(Earnings per Share) forecasts for companies in the index (Chart 1). As at
June, 2017 there were a total of only 68 forecasts, a decline of about half
(-54%). By way of comparison, in 2009, there were 11,407 EPS forecasts for
constituents of the Pan-European STOXX600 Index (Chart 2). By June, 2017, there
were 9,856 forecasts, a decline of just -14%.
The implication is
clear, as investment banks have pared back their research coverage of European
stocks, the Czech stock market has been marginalized.
Chart 1: Total Number of Analyst Forecasts for
Constituents of the Prague Stock Exchange (PX) Index
Methodology: The analysis utilized Bloomberg data for
the ‘standard consensus’ of sales, net income and eps.*With the exception of
2017 (data as at 30th June), all data is yearend data for the index
constituents at that date. There is a variation in the total number of
estimates for each data item (eps, sales net income) due to the fact Bloomberg
excludes forecasts not done on a basis consistent with other forecasters.
Chart 2: Total Number of Analyst Forecasts for
Constituents of the Pan-European STOXX600 Index
While the number
of constituents in the PX index can vary year to year, rather helpfully both, at
December, 2009, and June, 2017 there were 13 stocks in the index. Therefore, the
decline in coverage hasn’t been a consequence of fewer companies in the index.
Instead, it is a result of a broad based loss of interest by investment banks
in following Czech companies. Table 1 looks in more detail at the number of
forecasts for the individual constituents of the PX Index. Once again, ‘out of
date’ forecasts have been excluded from the analysis.
Of the 13 index
constituents in 2009, 9 still remained in the index, as at June, 2017. All
experienced declines in research coverage. Czech ‘blue chip’ CEZ saw the number
of published EPS forecasts for its stock drop from 22 in 2009, to 8 as at June,
2017. Similarly, Komercni Banka saw the number of forecasts decline from 18 to
10. Among the remaining companies in the index, with the possible exceptions of
the dual listed Austrian titles (Erste Bank and Vienna Insurance Group), the
figures look no better: CETV (from 10 to 3), Pegas (4 to 1), Erste Bank (24 to
18), Philip Morris CR (6 to 3), O2 CR (17 to 3), Unipetrol (8 to 2) and Vienna
Insurance Group (11 to 8).
Source:BloombergData/ AKRO investiční společnost, a.s.
Author’s note: Only forecasts considered
as up-to-date, and therefore included in the Bloomberg ‘Consensus’, have been
included.
Why Have
Investment Banks Curtailed Their Coverage of Czech Stocks?
The halving of Czech
research coverage needs to be seen in the context of generalized pressure on the
research departments of investment banks operating in Europe. The painful
restructuring of the European Banking sector, and the move to low cost passive
(index) investing, has led to the overall decline in published research; as
already noted earlier.
The particularly
steep decline in the coverage of Czech stocks by investment banks isn’t hard to
explain either. It’s the combination of the following:
·
Very poor performance of the Czech stock market. Between Dec, 2009 and June,
2017, while the Pan-European STOXX600 index rose +49%, the Czech PX Index fell
-12% (Chart 3). ECM, AAA Auto, Orco and NWR delisted during the period,
meanwhile VIG fell -12%, CEZ fell -54%, and CETV a whopping -86%.
Chart 3: The Prague PX
Index has Performed Poorly Compared to the STOXX600 Index
·
Lack of an appealing investment thesis. For
many investment banks, covering companies in non-mainstream markets only makes
sense if a positive investment case can be made. Perceived poor governance at
State controlled utility CEZ and the potential negative implications for
minority shareholders of any future restructuring of the company make CEZ a
difficult company for investment banks to recommend. Similarly, the entire
Czech banking sector remains under the cloud of a possible discriminatory tax.
·
Thin volumes. The Prague stock market
has long-suffered from small ‘free floats’ (the number of a company’s shares
freely tradable) and low trading volumes (Chart 4). During the period, the
government lengthened the period (to 3 years from 6 months) in which capital
gains became payable. This action merely incentivized Czech investors to trade
even less. Recently, both Pegas Nonwovens and Fortuna have seen their free floats
decline.
Chart 4: PSE Annual Equity
Trading Volume (CZKbn)
Source: PSE/World Bank. Nb. Four
equity issues account for approximately 95% of equity trading
‘Neglect’: Does
it matter?
The lack of
interest in the Czech stock market matters a great deal. As a recent World Bank
report[i]
noted, the Czech capital market already suffers from being too ‘bank-centric’. While
bank finance is important, equity finance is generally a more suitable form of
finance for the development of young entrepreneurial companies.
Negligible
research coverage by analysts will undoubtedly inhibit the development of the
Czech equity market. ‘Neglect’ by analysts is often associated with low equity valuations
(implying an unnecessarily high cost of equity finance), low trading volumes,
and increased scope for price manipulation and the mispricing of securities. In
2009, only one stock (AAA) was so ‘neglected’ that it had coverage by less than
3 analysts. By 2017, the number of neglected stocks had risen to 4 (Fortuna,
Kofola, Pegas Nonwovens and Unipetrol). A further 4 stocks (CETV, Stock, Philip
Morris CR and O2) were, as at June 2017, followed by just 3 analysts and
therefore may be viewed as on the cusp of ‘neglect’.
MiFidII –
From Bad to Worse
Next year sees the
implementation of the MiFidII Directive, a monolithic document with reputedly
some 1½ m paragraphs. A key aspect of this new regulation is the ‘unbundling’
of research services from dealing commissions[ii].
The separate charging for research services will undoubtedly put further
pressure on the research departments of investment banks. If researching
companies on the Czech stock market is of somewhat marginal importance for
investment banks now, it will be even less so post MiFidII. In terms of
research coverage, the Czech stock market is likely to be a major loser from
the implementation of MiFidII.
The Prague
Stock Exchange – In Terminal decline?
The slump in
research coverage is just the latest symptom of that the Czech equity market is
in crisis. What regular research there is, is now mainly undertaken by Czech
brokers or banks which are based in the region. Otherwise, research into Czech
stocks would appear somewhat ad-hoc and sporadic[iii].
This situation is unlikely to change in the near term. As discussed, the
introduction of MiFidII will add further pressure on research coverage. Furthermore,
the recent share purchases by strategic investors in Pegas Nonwovens and
Fortuna means the tradable ‘free-floats ‘of these stocks is now minimal. This
means there will be little incentive for investment banks to research these two
stocks. The future delisting of both stocks is a distinct possibility. The
‘Czech’ stock market will look increasingly like a market in name only, ‘cobbled
together’ by the inclusion of some dual listed stocks[iv].
To reverse the waning
interest in Czech equities, the development of the Czech equity market needs to
be made a priority. In this context, the World Bank’s recent Capital Market Assessment /Market
Development Options - Czech Republic is a timely and welcome contribution.
The study contains numerous specific proposals. These proposals should be given
serious consideration by the new Czech government.
More generally, however,
there needs to be a change of mindset. As the World Bank report noted, efforts
need to be made to build investor trust and confidence in the market.
Investors’ property rights must be better protected than has hitherto been the
case and much more effort must be made to promote Prague as a financial centre.
In these respects, actions will speak louder than words.
Jeremy Monk
Investment Director,
AKRO investiční společnost, a.s.
Prague
The author
would like to acknowledge the help and advice of Sayo Ando, Ami Yao, and
Ponprom Rojanakiratikan at Bloomberg in compiling the ‘coverage’ data that went
into this article.
[i] Capital Market Assessment /Market Development Options Czech
Republic. World Bank Group. September, 2017
[ii] AKRO investiční
společnost, a.s. has long had a policy of relying on proprietary, internally
generated, research. External research and other services, where required, are
paid for separately by the investment company as an expense and not ‘bundled’ into
trading commissions, or ‘softing’ arrangements, where the costs are borne by client
funds. AKRO investiční společnost, a.s. trades only through low cost, execution
only, brokerage services.
[iii] As at writing,
26/10/17, of the 21 sets of forecasts for CEZ, only 11 are up-to-date.
[iv] 6 out of the 13 stocks
in the Prague PX Index are incorporated outside of the Czech Republic (Erste
Group-Austria, Vienna Insurance Group-Austria, Stock Spirits-Britain, Central
European Media-Bermuda, Pegas Nonwovens-Luxembourg, Fortuna-Netherlands).
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