A Strategy for a ‘Top Tier’ Capital Market?

Disappointingly, publication of the World Bank’s detailed assessment of the Czech Capital Market has been greeted with deafening silence. The timing of the report’s publication[i], last September, just ahead of the general elections and more recent Presidential elections, undoubtedly didn’t help attract attention. That only the main recommendations, rather than the body of the report, were translated into Czech language probably didn’t help either. That is a pity because the World Bank’s report, which utilised input from market participants, provides not only a comprehensive overview of the Czech capital market but also gives numerous insights and constructive suggestions. In particular, how a ‘top tier’ capital market can be developed.

 Research ‘Coverage’ Halves

A study by AKRO investiční společnost, a.s., a Prague based investment firm, shows that since the end of the financial crisis there has been a steep decline in the number of investment banks publishing up-to-date forecasts for companies on the Prague Stock Exchange.

Using Bloomberg Data, the analysis studied the level of research ‘coverage’ for companies included in the Prague Stock Exchange (PX) Index. The term research ‘coverage’ refers to the number analysts’ published financial forecasts for a given listed company. These forecasts are provided mainly by investment banks but occasionally also by independent research firms. For consistency, only forecasts included in the Bloomberg ‘consensus’ were included, thereby ensuring out-of-date forecasts were excluded.

By Jeremy Monk, AKRO investiční společnost, a.s.

The plethora of investment indices continues to grow. Whatever the asset class, there is an index to accommodate it, whether its stocks, bonds, commodities, property, art, fine wine, etc.

But what about an index that tracks the market value of a basket of historic bond and share certificates? A group of scripophily experts joined forces recently to develop one. The traded securities don’t have any “intrinsic” value, they are just financial esoterica that, for various reasons, have significant historical or decorative value.

The Historic Stocks Market (HSTM) Index tracks the auction prices of 100 “representative” share and bond certificates and is updated every six months to incorporate the latest realized sale values. Since its inception in late 2012, the index has risen by approximately 25%.

Pohyby na trzích aktiv jsou běžným jevem. Investoři mají v zásadě na výběr mezi vyššími očekávanými výnosy a nižším rizikem. Preference výnosnosti je spojena s vyšší rizikovostí investičních instrumentů, a naopak, rizikově averzní investoři by měli očekávat nižší výnosnost. Obecně jsou za riziková aktiva považovány především akcie. Oproti tomu, za „bezpečný přístav“ bývají považovány drahé kovy, a to jak z pohledu rizika, tak výnosnosti. Následující analýza prokazuje, že to může být omyl.

Zaměřujeme se na srovnání investic do zlata a stříbra, a cenných papírů v podobě akcií – v tomto případě využijeme jeden z akciových indexů, Dow Jones Industrial Average, DJIA. Údaje z americké ekonomiky lze, vzhledem k vyspělosti akciového trhu, považovat za reprezentativní. Začátek analyzovaného období (4. Q 2005) je spojen s předkrizovým stavem amerických (a dalších) trhů.

Would You Care to Dance?

Prague is that shy girl sitting in the corner. She doesn’t realise she’s the prettiest girl in the room. As Paris, Frankfurt and Madrid strut their stuff and even Dublin, Warsaw and tiny Luxemburg show their moves; Prague has thus far refused to dance. The other European cities are, of course, all dancing the Brexit fandango: Seductively putting forward their credentials as a safe harbour for firms, especially professional service firms, relocating activities from London in response to Britain’s decision to leave the European Union (EU).

But what of Prague? Prague has so far been noticeably absent in putting itself forward as a destination. That is a mistake. It is the author’s opinion, and an opinion shared by many fellow Brits, that Prague has a lot to offer. The Czech government, CzechInvest and the City of Prague, shouldn’t be shy in outlining the case for relocation to the Czech Republic.