Pohyby na trzích aktiv jsou běžným jevem.
Investoři mají v zásadě na výběr mezi vyššími očekávanými výnosy a nižším
rizikem. Preference výnosnosti je spojena s vyšší rizikovostí investičních
instrumentů, a naopak, rizikově averzní investoři by měli očekávat nižší
výnosnost. Obecně jsou za riziková aktiva považovány především akcie. Oproti
tomu, za „bezpečný přístav“ bývají považovány drahé kovy, a to jak
z pohledu rizika, tak výnosnosti. Následující analýza prokazuje, že to může
být omyl.
Zaměřujeme se na srovnání investic do zlata
a stříbra, a cenných papírů v podobě akcií – v tomto případě využijeme
jeden z akciových indexů, Dow Jones Industrial Average, DJIA. Údaje
z americké ekonomiky lze, vzhledem k vyspělosti akciového trhu,
považovat za reprezentativní. Začátek analyzovaného období (4. Q 2005) je
spojen s předkrizovým stavem amerických (a dalších) trhů.
Would
You Care to Dance?
Prague is that shy girl sitting in the
corner. She doesn’t realise she’s the prettiest girl in the room. As Paris,
Frankfurt and Madrid strut their stuff and even Dublin, Warsaw and tiny
Luxemburg show their moves; Prague has thus far refused to dance. The other
European cities are, of course, all dancing the Brexit fandango: Seductively putting
forward their credentials as a safe harbour for firms, especially professional
service firms, relocating activities from London in response to Britain’s
decision to leave the European Union (EU).
But what of Prague? Prague has so far been
noticeably absent in putting itself forward as a destination. That is a
mistake. It is the author’s opinion, and an opinion shared by many fellow
Brits, that Prague has a lot to offer. The Czech government, CzechInvest and
the City of Prague, shouldn’t be shy in outlining the case for relocation to
the Czech Republic.
Investors spend enormous amount of
time analysing companies, industries, trends and simply try to understand how
the business works. That is of course very much needed and at least basic
understanding is absolutely essential for correct asset valuation. However, in
the very end of the valuation process one deeply subjective variable may enter
into the calculation. And it may change everything.
Once companies have provided financial guidance: Are analysts’ forecasts
able to add any extra value? If so, how often and by how much?
A study by AKRO
investiční společnost, comparing the accuracy of analyst forecasts and
management forecasts, shows that so called ‘post event’ analyst forecasts, i.e.
those made post recent results/management guidance, are in general more
accurate than management forecasts. Both the frequency and magnitude of the
greater accuracy prove significant, a somewhat reassuring conclusion for
research analysts.
If analysts are
able to provide insights with regard to tangible measures of value, it seems
logical to assume analysts are also able to provide insights with regard to
less tangible measures of value, e.g. management quality, industry outlook. At
a time when the ‘active’ asset management industry is getting a bad press, and
many research departments are being downsized[i],
the results should give pause for thought.
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